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Catalogue of Cycles Periods and Phases

Posted: Sat Jul 10, 2021 2:56 am
by RayTomes
In the past, Edward R Dewey made accurate determinations of cycles periods and phases. From this he discovered his principles concerning cycles synchrony and cycles period ratios of 2 and 3. These determinations can also be used for forecasting. Using Dewey's stock market cycles from the 1960s and running them forward the 1987 stock market crash could be predicted!

This suggestion is that the Foundation for the Study of Cycles should build up a set of resources which includes data series and cycles periods and phases based on that data. References should be given to the original source of data including who was involved in collecting the data as well as a URL for the data on line so that data can be updated in the future also.

This catalogue is seen as a scientific endeavor but can include market data as well as scientific data. This message will appear in both scientific and market sections of the forum in the "other/interdisciplinary" section. Please post your catalogue information as replies to this post. Each post should be brief and include the following items. A more detailed report with graphs etc should be posted under the particular topic such as geology, climate, commodities, stock market.

a. Description of the data and who collected it and how.
b. URL of data source.
c. The range of dates used in the analysis and step interval (daily, weekly, yearly etc).
d. Cycles period +/- uncertainty.
e. Cycles phase +/-uncertainty.
For Stock Market cycles, phase should be date of a low.
For Commodity cycles, phase should be date of a high.
These recommendations are based on Hurst's experience of when harmonically related cycles come together.
For geology, climate, etc suggest date of a low, but whatever is done,specify it clearly.
f. Software used to determine cycle, and steps taken (e.g. logs taken, rate of change, remove moving averages etc, and spectrum).

CATS software or FSC Cycles App or other software can be used for these various requirements.