A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post Reply
Marc Jackson
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:25 am

A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by Marc Jackson »

This report (attached in zip format) contains a number of possible ways to perform cycles analysis, asking the specific question of when will Bitcoin bottom.

This is the first report I have attached so I'm very interested in constructive criticism and feedback and of course, I hope it is useful.

The Cycles Ideas can be found here: https://app.cycles.org/workbook/MR7yR1l6mm


Marc
Attachments
DeepDiveBitcoin.zip
(919.24 KiB) Downloaded 105 times
Marc Jackson
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:25 am

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by Marc Jackson »

Pondering over this 29 days / 294 days, it's very close in duration to the Synodic period of the Moon (averaging 29.530589 days). The 294 days cycle would then be 10 synodic periods of the Moon.

Dewey mentions the 'Wideawake' Terns breeding cycle that also follow this period (9.7 months).

It may seems ridiculous that Bitcoin could start synchronising with the moon's cycles but it makes sense if we reason things through:
1) Bitcoin is probably the most emotionally charged asset available
2) The moon's cycles have proven to have a slight effect on emotions
3) There are over 100 million wallet addresses for Bitcoin

So if we amplify a minor emotional effect across 100 million people we should expect to see some correlation.

Attached is a chart of Bitcoin and Ethereum against moon phases (New moon =peak, Full Moon = Trough).

Also note the 2017 peak was on a New Moon and Ethereum's recent peak was the day before a New Moon.
Attachments
New Picture (73).png
New Picture (73).png (138.4 KiB) Viewed 1144 times
New Picture (72).png
New Picture (72).png (264.39 KiB) Viewed 1147 times
User avatar
RayTomes
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:23 am

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by RayTomes »

I have done some analysis of bitcoin prices cycles. Yes, you do get a close (but not significant) relationship over the last 6 months. But before that there is no relationship and over the long term there are no cycles anywhere near the lunar periods.

I have posted the significant cycles in bitcoin here:
viewtopic.php?f=40&t=37&p=62&hilit=bitcoin#p62
Ray Tomes
ray@cycles.org
Science Director of Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Marc Jackson
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:25 am

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by Marc Jackson »

Thanks Ray,

You've forced me to rethink and re-analyse, which is a good thing.

I agree that day trading bitcoin using moon cycles may have worked in the recent past, however, there is no strong reason to expect that such a correlation will continue into the future. I thought I had been clear on this point, using phrases such as "It may seems ridiculous that Bitcoin could start synchronising with the moon's cycles". Starting implies ending at some point.

It should be noted though, there is a correlation between new moons and major bitcoin peaks:

Peak Date -> Closest New Moon -> Difference (Days)
13/04/2021 -> 12/04/2021 -> 1
26/06/2019 -> 02/07/2019 -> 6
16/12/2017 -> 18/12/2017 -> 2
04/12/2013 -> 03/12/2013 -> 1
09/04/2013 -> 10/04/2013 -> 1
08/06/2011 -> 02/06/2011 -> 6

So if anyone is trading bitcoin, beware the new moon. For bitcoin bottoms I found no correlation with full moons:

Bottoms -> Closest Full Moon -> Difference (Days)
12/03/2020 -> 09/03/2020 -> 3
14/12/2018 -> 22/12/2018 -> 8
14/01/2015 -> 05/01/2015 -> 9
05/07/2013 -> 23/06/2013 -> 12
18/11/2011 -> 11/11/2011 -> 7
10/04/2011 -> 18/04/2011 -> 8

That being said, there seems to be a strong and consistent relationship when doing the same analysis with Ethereum.

I'm not convinced that bitcoin has any more intrinsic value than any other fiat currency, however, intrinsic value has never been an issue for most traders, as far as I can tell.
MarkNewton
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:32 pm

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by MarkNewton »

Hello Marc, I was wondering if you had done any work with Bitcoin's Natal chart to come up cycles- as ive had success in finding turns given Angles to 19-21 Mutable signs and of course Bitcoin's numerous planets in Aquarius/Capricorn. But ive wondered about taking the synodic cycles from former highs or lows and accounting for Ellipses or how one could take this and translate it into various cycles of different lengths. Just thinking out loud here, but there are definite "energy" spots which cause acceleration higher and lower that seem to work time and time again- Taking these and figuring out the cycles is the next step- Mark
Marc Jackson
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:25 am

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by Marc Jackson »

Hi Mark,

To be honest, I didn't know that Bitcoin has a natal chart until you mentioned it. We can give an exact birthday but location would be a guess (London?).

My understanding of natal charts is that at the exact time and place of birth, the planets colour our personality so for Bitcoin to have a natal chart it would also need a personality, which is a rabbit hole I'm not going down.

That said, if something works then it works. Various folks have given presentations for the FSC talking about planetary influences on markets and it's something I may look into in more detail.

I'm not sure what "finding turns given Angles to 19-21 Mutable signs" means, could you expand?

I agree with your idea of energy spots. For me, this is when cycles combine to form sharper peaks or sharper troughs.


Marc
MarkNewton
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:32 pm

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by MarkNewton »

January 3, 2009. 6:15 pm GMT - is the Natal - Send me an email Marc to mlnewt207@gmail.com I"m happy to share some work ive done on Crypto and Bitcoin areas of high energy and things that have coincided with major turns-
MarkNewton
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:32 pm

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by MarkNewton »

Looks like a number of my posts have been erased on this Board. Im not sure what i posted that was so controversial , maybe someone could enlighten me - This is my attempt to HELP others who wish to converse on cycles?
User avatar
RayTomes
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:23 am

Re: A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin

Post by RayTomes »

Hi Mark
I can find no evidence that posts of yours have been deleted. Two thoughts:

1. Did you do "preview" and then forget to do "post"? It can happen. I have done it myself.

2. In future please take a screen shot after you post. That will help with trying to trace things.

Be assured that as long as people are polite and on topic there is no intention to censure anyone.

Regards
Ray
Ray Tomes
ray@cycles.org
Science Director of Foundation for the Study of Cycles
User avatar
RTirock
Posts: 22
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:18 pm

-

Post by RTirock »

It would make a good place for some training. Maybe a novelty dive. I don't get excited about diving in a swimming pool and doubt that concrete at 60' will look much different than concrete at 10'.
Post Reply