First post is just a question

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AhmedRadhy
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:13 pm

First post is just a question

Post by AhmedRadhy »

Hello everybody,

So happy to see this forum and learn more with you. I do not know if this is the right place for all my questions or not but I'll give it a try and all the admins might correct and guide.

So first of all with the cycle app. Why do we need to select only the 3 strongest, longest, or whatever you choose? Why don't we just select all the cycles available? When I select everything I noticed it gives me a better look at all the details of what might going to happen to the stock in the future. Sorry if this is a beginner question but I guess we still could learn.

Second, I know that cycles give you the bigger picture of what is going on but you can't use it by itself ever. I would love to see what others have been using to filter the cycles to trade weekly options. I don't like to stay for the long term. I like to get in and out with some good profit very soon.

The last thing, I have all the respect to all the guest speakers you guys had at the summits and I don't have anything against them at all. The only thing that I don't like is seeing them talking about cycles and don't show their work on the cycle app here in the foundation and especially the Board & Staff members. I mean come on guys. I know that you have your own website and courses that you are telling us about but at least show the work using the cycle app here in the foundation. Show us that you support and you use this work in your trading. YOU ARE ONE OF THE BOARD & STAFF. I hope that you guys don't take this personally and I don't like to mention names but I have it from my heart to you.

Thank you and sorry for this long first post :-)
msbakshi
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:14 pm

Re: First post is just a question

Post by msbakshi »

1. Thanks for starting discussion about using Cycle App.

2. We have lots of things which require discussion to understand what are the features, what do they mean, and how to use them effectively.

3. I can attempt to answer one of your questions: "Why do we need to select only the 3 strongest, longest, or whatever you choose?"

3a. The process which analyzes the time series data (stock or index Closes) such as "Fourier Transform" and "Digital Signal Processing" Transform used by Cycle App figures out what Cycles are present and how strong they are.

3b. The problem here is that they generate Cycles that reallly do not exist! So there are "spurious" or false cycles in what is being presented in the results. As I understand it, Bartell score helps us in ignoring false cycles.

3c. In the next few days I will be posting an example in the Ideas section which shows which are the real cycles and which are the false cycles.

4. I think it would be helpful if we create various TOPICS within which we discus only that topic.
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RayTomes
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:23 am

Re: First post is just a question

Post by RayTomes »

Regarding selecting 3 cycles, I would say that is a rough guide only.

I use CATS (see elsewhere in forum for details). It is not as easy to put cycles in and out, but it allows many manipulations. Often people use p<0.05 for significance, but this will very likely include some unreal cycles. If you use p<0.01 or even less then that problem is eliminated. Good luck!
Ray Tomes
http://ray.tomes.biz
Science Director of Foundation for the Study of Cycles
msbakshi
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:14 pm

Re: First post is just a question

Post by msbakshi »

Thank you very much for CATS information. I will try it out.
AhmedRadhy
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:13 pm

Re: First post is just a question

Post by AhmedRadhy »

msbakshi wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:06 pm 1. Thanks for starting discussion about using Cycle App.

2. We have lots of things which require discussion to understand what are the features, what do they mean, and how to use them effectively.

3. I can attempt to answer one of your questions: "Why do we need to select only the 3 strongest, longest, or whatever you choose?"

3a. The process which analyzes the time series data (stock or index Closes) such as "Fourier Transform" and "Digital Signal Processing" Transform used by Cycle App figures out what Cycles are present and how strong they are.

3b. The problem here is that they generate Cycles that reallly do not exist! So there are "spurious" or false cycles in what is being presented in the results. As I understand it, Bartell score helps us in ignoring false cycles.

3c. In the next few days I will be posting an example in the Ideas section which shows which are the real cycles and which are the false cycles.

4. I think it would be helpful if we create various TOPICS within which we discus only that topic.
Thank you so much for the reply.


I would love to see some examples with fales cycles because it seems that what I noticed sometimes when I select all the data represented, I get a good match to what happed in the past  :?  This is why I had that question because I saw a really good representation of the movement studying the past by selecting all the points. Let see if I could post an example here. 


Apple Stock using only the first strongest Bartell. From that chart, you will see at the beginning of 2019 the price did not move in the direction of the cycle.

Image

The same one but this time selecting all the points.

Image

Here it was almost the same if you follow the big movements.


Again, I'm totally new to using cycles and maybe really a kindergartener in this field.

Lastly, sorry for my last point because I really didn't know where to put it  
AhmedRadhy
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:13 pm

Re: First post is just a question

Post by AhmedRadhy »

RayTomes wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:40 pm Regarding selecting 3 cycles, I would say that is a rough guide only.

I use CATS (see elsewhere in forum for details). It is not as easy to put cycles in and out, but it allows many manipulations. Often people use p<0.05 for significance, but this will very likely include some unreal cycles. If you use p<0.01 or even less then that problem is eliminated. Good luck!
Thank you for sharing that with us. I will definitely try to study this meothd.
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RayTomes
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:23 am

Re: First post is just a question

Post by RayTomes »

The more cycles you select,the nearer it will get to the original data. That is just a mathematical fact. It does not mean it will be accurate in the future.

But if you only select very significant cycles, the it should be accurate for a while, especially if you have a long base line to start with.
Ray Tomes
http://ray.tomes.biz
Science Director of Foundation for the Study of Cycles
msbakshi
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:14 pm

Re: First post is just a question

Post by msbakshi »

It would be appropriate to have this discussion under

Forum section
Method, Maths, Music
FSC Cycles App
2. Discussion on Using the Cycle Analyzer
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